The performance of the Gambian economy has been lackluster at best in spite of the glowing and often misleading reports from The World Bank and the IMF. The World Bank and IMF have often prepared glowing assessment reports on the Gambia’s economic performance, but contradictory views are made apparent by uncontestable indicators; not the least of which are the increasing poverty rate, capital flight, lack of skilled manpower, declining productivity particularly in the agricultural sector, and a marked drop of our GDP, among others. The defective appraisal methodologies the World Bank and IMF’s utilize to measure the performance of our economy are prone to conclusions that have absolutely no bearing on the reality, primarily because the data provided by the regime, is based on fudged and manufactured records and false and deceptive accounting practices and procedures. Most of the reports the World Bank and IMF have prepared on our economy are disproportionately rosy, and clearly, contradictions to their reports are manifested in the total lack of improvements in the quality of life of Gambians. Moreover, marginal gains registered, has primarily benefited an insignificant percentage of the population, most of who either have direct access to foreign aid funds by virtue of their positions in government, or can access government administered funds through the crony culture. In spite of the World Bank and IMF reports, Gambia has accrued a massive international debt of $1.6 billion, which is stifling economic development. Additionally, the Gambian economy is burdened by pervasive illegal practices in the financial sector, exacerbated by corruption, chronic lack of accountability, and recurrent budget deficits. But one of the great failures of our economy is our dependence on foreign aid, not investment, as the primary engine of economic growth. Additionally, the existing financial institutions are not setup to provide investment capital, either because of lack of liquidity, or they are designed to suit small savings and micro lending; hardly enough to spur economic growth. The necessity to overhaul our banking and financial institutions is overwhelming for several reasons; but mainly to exclude banks that lack the capital viability to lend for investment, growth and economic expansion; secondly to protect Gambian consumers from losses they could incur from possible bank failures. Banks setup to launder illegal drug money, counterfeit currency, or for the sole purposes of generating quick profits at the expense of Gambian clientele, must be excluded from participating in the economic activity, due to the likelihood of failure they pose. The mere presence of such illegal financial activities is devastating to the economy, and to Gambians who entrust these banks with their savings. However, one of the most contentious issues facing our country is Yahya Jammeh’s multiple business interests, which spread the depth and breadth of our economy; from butchery, transport and communication, bakery, construction, retail, agriculture, manufacturing, import and export, food processing, investment in property, property development and management as well as land acquisition. These businesses are not only stifling competition, but Yahya Jammeh’s use of and monopoly of state resources and the state apparatus to expand his business ventures is creating unfair advantages for competitors, even as it dampens the morale of business, discourages investment and entrepreneurship, creates monopoly, and adversely affect the business sector to the detriment of our economy.
Despite the positive spin the World Bank and IMF reports put on the performance of our economy over time, our GDPs have contracted significantly every year since 1975. And our government’s annual working capital, or the budget if you will, is dependent on and financed by foreign aid, principally from Britain and the U.S. Gambia’s productivity is insufficient to generate adequate revenue from personal and business taxation in order to fund public projects, make payroll for the civil service, invest in the education of our children, build our road infrastructure, provide adequate medical care and security for our people. To date, Gambia’s debt forgiveness, or debt relief, amounts to billions of dollars, and the government has become reliant of debt-forgiveness to stave off bankruptcy. The Gambia’s productivity has dropped significantly from $378 per capita GDP in 1985, to $353 in 2000. And agricultural production, which previously accounted for 75% of our GDP and export earnings only a decade and half ago, now accounts for a paltry 22% of our GDP, but employs 74% of our labor force. The service industry; communications, electricity generation, hotels, among others, now account for 64% of our GDP, yet employ a mere 15% of our labor force; producing nearly two thirds of our annual GDP. This anomaly can best be explained in simpler terms as amounting to 60% or more unemployment and underemployment of our productive labor force. Significantly, our export earnings have dropped from $.044 billion in 1975 to $.019 billion in 2000. In short, Gambia is producing far less for export and local consumption now, than we did only generation ago. The rural population, who were self-sufficient in food production a decade and half ago, is for the first time in our history, reliant on imported Asian rice for their daily sustenance. Over the past decade and half, an increasing number of farmers have abandoned farming life and the rural countryside to migrate to metropolitan centers in the Kombo region.
Clearly, there is no longer any incentive to farm due primarily to the lack of markets for our cash crops. Additionally, farmers across the country are owed monies for crops relinquished to private merchants and traders acting on behalf of the state, but have been unable to recover their hard earned monies, some for several years now. The result is that many farmers now cross the border into Senegal to sell their harvest; a great loss to our national economy. A justification of this is found in a theory of market economy; “capital, inherently growth generating yet constantly limited by the market in which it has grown, has historically attempted by all means-including conquest, banditry and piracy-to push the frontiers of its market.” This fitting analogy aptly explains the phenomenon of farmers abandoning the inadequate market outlets in our country for alternative markets sources across our border in Senegal. In other areas, it is a misnomer to describe the 16 miles long coastal bright lights and the few sparsely spread projects undertaken by Yahya Jammeh’s regime as development, especially since funds used to construct these few projects are borrowed from IMF, The World Bank or are secured as grants from friendly governments around the world. The Yahya Jammeh regime will be hard pressed to show where the $1.6 billion or 48 billion Dalasis of our external debt was spent in Gambia. With our schools in terrible state of repair and lacking teachers and educational supplies, our health centers and hospital under-staffed and short of drugs and equipment, roads in the metropolitan centers and around the country in poor state of repair, productivity dropping significantly, monopolization of the business sector by Yahya Jammeh’s business empire, an utterly demoralized civil service, institutionalized corruption, and our country turned into a drug haven for South American drug lords, the Gambia has a long, long road to redemption and liberty. Yahya Jammeh is heading a cartel of drug dealers in a country where mediocrity has become a virtue. The future of the Gambia with Yahya Jammeh as its head looks bleak, but we cannot lose hope. For, somehow and someway, the Gambia will persevere and emerge from this political inertia a better country. But, as long as Yahya Jammeh continues his arbitrary and unilateral dictation of our fiscal and monetary policies, the Gambian economy will continue its downwards spiral.