The Center for Policy, Research and Strategic Studies (CEPRASS) October 2021 Opinion Poll is not just about who will win the December 4th 2021 Elections. It covers a number of very useful topics that the Authorities, Citizens, Political Parties, Candidates, Civil Society and the Media, in particular, can use to better prepare for the Presidential Elections.
After reading the CEPRASS Report here are some of my initial perspectives on the groundbreaking poll published only two (2) months before the December 4th 2021 Presidential Elections.
1. The report provides a guide on the public’s priority on Elections and Electoral Reforms. It explores what people think about IEC’s Handling of the Electoral Process. The polls asked respondents if IEC did enough not to register foreigners, which the majority (53% strongly agree and 22% agree) believe was done. Another question posed by pollsters asked what is the most important electoral reform agenda for the country. The poll suggests Term Limit (43%) is the most important electoral reform agenda followed by Simple Majority (23%), Diaspora Voting (18%) etc.
2. Voting and Peaceful Elections is explored in the poll which asks people the most important factor for deciding which candidate to support. The poll also asks respondents the most important issue any candidate should address and the country’s chances for peaceful Elections. This section contains the most talked-about poll questions of “party likely to win” and “party you intend to vote for“. This section notes that most (63%) people vote based on the party Manifesto which I seriously doubt because of the low literacy rate and the fact that President Adama Barrow’s recently formed National People’s Party (NPP) doesn’t have a Manifesto yet they have the highest (31%) percentage of votes. Another noteworthy omission is the absence of independent candidates.
In my view, perhaps the most important section claims that the public believe that Youth Unemployment (34%) and Agriculture (18%) are the two “Most important issues any Candidate should address“. Any youth advocate should take note of this. It’s also important to note that Youth makes up the majority (58%) of voters in the voter’s register.
For peace advocates, this section is also worth considering as it looks at the relationship between Political Parties which most respondents (42%) say is poor and 8% say is very poor. Perhaps this is a signal that the Inter-Party Committee should do more to improve the relationship between Political Parties.
3. Another section of the CEPRASS poll report focuses on Covid 19 and the Election. This section engages citizens views on Covid 19 postponing the elections. This section of the poll should be of huge importance for health experts, the IEC, the authorities and the general public.
This section asks respondents, “Covid-19 may lead to Postponement of December Elections“, which 45% disagree with meaning most Gambians are not ready to postpone the elections due to Covid 19. Another question also asks respondents about the consequences of postponing the elections, which 46% of respondents say will be bad and 31% believe will be very detrimental.
It can be seen that besides asking the public who is most likely to win the CEPRASS October 2021 Poll also aims to collate the public’s most important issues candidates should address, voting priority and the Local Government areas which have the most undecided voters for Parties to help the public decide.
The poll also demonstrates that our Political Party Representatives need to do more to improve the relationship between Parties. Most importantly the poll suggests that the public will not accept Covid 19 as an excuse to postpone the elections which they also believe will be peaceful. About 55% of respondents believe that there is a 75% – 100% chance that the elections will be peaceful.
Another important point to note is the fact that 80% of respondents believe that the IEC will deliver free and fair elections.
In conclusion, a few points worth noting is the sample size used for the poll are 969 households of which 95% said they had a voters card. The poll was conducted via telephone calls and oversampling of up to 50% was used to account for non-response.
According to the report, the percentage of women interviewed is 28% meanwhile the percentage of women registered to vote is 57%. Likewise, the percentage of people interviewed aged 18-44 interviewed are 63%, however, the percentage of youth (18-34) registered in the voter’s register is 58%. These both highlight some mismatch in the sampling sizes of women more than youth.
Download the CEPRASS Report at the link. You can also areas the first publication on the CEPRASS Opinion Poll in the link below.
Yusef Taylor, commonly known as Flex Dan is an editor and practising journalist based in the Gambia with a keen interest in human rights, the economy and good governance among many others.
He continues to break news on the economy, human rights violations and is highly engaged in security sector reforms, constitutional reform and the transition of the Gambia from dictatorship to a democracy, the NewGambia.
Yusef has been working with Gainako as a media practitioner from 2015 to date. He has a degree in Civil Engineering with 5 years of Design Consultancy experience.