The Senegalese Ambassador to The Gambia, H.E. Babacar Diagne, has announced today, Saturday, during a TFM television interview that the first consultative meetings between Senegal and Gambia will take place in Banjul, Monday and Tuesday July 8 and 9 2013. The Senegalese Foreign Minister will lead the Senegalese delegation.
The Senegalese Ambassador also disclosed that the initial consultations were scheduled to take place in November but were advanced to an earlier date at the insistence of the Gambian dictator who felt November was to late to start the talks and that August or September were the start of the farming season. To announce the dates for the consultations 48 hours before the start of the meetings and a day before Yaya Jammeh’s tirade on Senegalese television are quite instructive. He knew before he invited TFM television for the interview that the consultations have been scheduled to start on Monday. So on the eve of the consultations, he went on the offensive with an opening salvo of giving Senegal an ultimatum – Senegal either rein in Gambian dissidents in Dakar or he will not deliver peace in the Casamance.
The presence of Gambian dissidents in Dakar is an inconvenient reminder and an irritant to Jammeh because it draws constant attention to the poor governance conditions in the Gambia. This is an inconvenience Jammeh would rather not have at a time when his internal security apparatus is under great stress and an economy on the verge of collapse. The internet activism of dissident Gambians only adds to Jammeh’s woes which drove him to promulgating a law that criminalizes internet political dissent, attracting more international criticism to his unpopular regime.
Recent developments regarding the crisis in the Casamance do not seem to favor Jammeh’s grand plan for the sub-region using the MFDC crisis as a vehicle to achieving a bigger role for himself. The issue of legitimacy has always been an issue with Jammeh despite the fact that he’s been at the helm for 19 years.
Jammeh has always seen the Casamance conflict as a route to gaining regional and international acceptability and recognition. He thought he was en-route to realizing his objective with the announcement by President Macky Sall of Jammeh’s more enhanced role only to see President Obama spoil the party with the American offer to help in the mediation efforts. To Jammeh two is always a crowd.
Sensing that the American President’s visit was going to complicate things for him, Jammeh despatched Susan Waffa-Ogoo, his Foreign Minister only hours before Air Force One touch down at Leopold Sedar Senghore Airport to try talking Senegal out of American involvement in what Jammeh sees as purely a Sene-Gambian affair. Contrary to a widely-help view, the Gambian Foreign Minister was in Dakar primarily to register opposition to the pending American offer and not to extract an invitation for Jammeh to take part in the Obama visit. Jammeh knew he was not wanted in Dakar.
The failure of the Waffa-Ogoo mission led Jammeh to unleash his tirade against Senegal. His ultimatum was mis-directed. The issue that led to it may have been influenced in part by dissident activities in Dakar but the central issue that led to his threatening remarks was the U.S. offer to help in the mediation which he views as America meddling in what he sees as purely a local affair. We will watch as events unfold come Monday, and especially the role the newly recreated Senegalo-Gambian Permanent Secretariat will play, if any, in the first rounds of the consultations.