Gambia Debt Report Factsheet – Almost 1 Billion Dalasis A Month in 2017

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By Yusef Taylor, @FlexDan_YT

“To put this in context within a period of 9 months (February 2017 and December 2017) The Gambia Government borrowed 8.2 Billion Dalasis. That’s just less than a Billion Dalasis every month, a startling revelation of how much money The Gambia is borrowing.”

As published in Gainako’s first Gambia Debt Report entitled “Projected to exceed 100 Billion Dalasis by 2021” below are the reproduced statistic for Business enthusiasts, Economist and anybody interested to examine and carry out their own independent analysis. I hope it encourages experts and everyday people to examine the National Debt which currently has the highest allocation in the National Budget of over 30%. The vicious cycle of debt is such that the more you borrow the more you have to pay, however, there are remedies such as debt cancellation as exercised by China last year.

Overall assumptions
  • Projected figures are derived from actual debt reported in the 2018 Budget Speech
  • The Gambia continues to borrow every year
  • Debt cancellation and repayments have not been considered
  • Percentage differences have been used for projected figures

1.      Projection 1 – 100 Billion by 2021

As featured in Gainako’s first Debt Report the 100 Billion Dalasi debt ceiling will be exceeded by 2021. This calculation was considered conservative as it uses a 12 month period instead of a 9 month period for the calculation. Below are the data table and chart for the first projection as published in the article.

Chart 1 – 100 Billion Dalasis by 2021

2.      Projection 2 – 100 Billion by 2020

This second chart uses a 9 month period between intervals and thereby presenting a more accurate projection as opposed to the 12-month interval in the first chart. This, however, demonstrates that the 100 Billion Dalasi debt ceiling will be exceeded by 2020. This is also based on the assumption that the Gambian Government maintains it previous borrowing rate of not more than 17% percentage increase in future years.

To put this in context within a period of 9 months (February 2017 and December 2017) The Gambia Government borrowed 8.2 Billion Dalasis. That’s just less than a Billion Dalasis every month, a startling revelation of how much money the Gambia is borrowing.

Chart 2 – 100 Billion by 2020

3.      Projection 3 – Reduced Borrowing

This projection represents a Gambia Government determined to reduce the amount of money it borrows every year. In the third chart and figure, the Gambian Government is reducing the amount of borrowing consistently by at least 5% to 3% every year. This calculation demonstrates that with reduced borrowing The Gambia will owe less than 90 Billion Dalasi by 2020. It must be noted that these figures don’t include the amount of debt repaid or cancelled as we are not privy to that information. Nonetheless, the important question remains how does The Gambia deal with its mounting debt problem?

Chart 3 – Reduced Borrowing

Data Source

  1. 2018 Budget Speech
  2. 2017 December – In the Budget Speech report published by the Minister of Finance the latest debt figures as of 20th Dec 2017 is 56.5 billion dalasi. http://foroyaa.gm/what-is-the-total-debt-of-the-country/
  3. 2017 February – Foroyaa Newspaper reported that “GAMBIA HAS A DEBT OF D48.3 BILLION” http://foroyaa.gm/gambia-has-a-debt-of-d48-3-billion/
  4. 2016 September – Foroyaa Newspaper raised the question “IS GAMBIA’S 25.1 BILLION DALASI DEBT PAYABLE?” http://foroyaa.gm/is-gambias-25-1-billion-dalasi-debt-payable/
  5. 2016 January – Foroyaa Newspaper reported that “The Domestic debt is 20.7 Billion. The External debt is 23.3 Billion Dalasis.” http://foroyaa.gm/what-is-the-debt-burden-of-the-country/

 

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